High-resolution spatial analysis of temperature influence on the rainfall regime and extreme precipitation events in north-central Italy.

In the last few years, several works have analyzed rainfall regime changes with the increase of temperature as a result of global warming. These changes, documented mainly in northern Europe, still need to be clarified in the Mediterranean area. Many studies have identified sometimes contradictory trends according to the type of data used, the methodology, and the daily or subdaily types of events. Therefore, an in-depth investigation of the Mediterranean area is required for the definition of more certain future scenarios. In this study, we examined a very large database including >1000 raingauges and thermometers in northern and central Italy to analyze the relationship between temperature and rainfall using the relation Clausius-Clapeyron. Furthermore, we analyzed the relationship between temperature and extreme precipitation events (EPEs, defined as the events higher than the 95th percentile) calculating the temperature anomalies occurred during these events. This large database covers a low rainfall accumulation period (RAP) that allowed us to study the relationship between temperature and rainfall and to distinguish rapid from long events related to rainfall intensity. The results show different relationships between rainfall and temperature in relation to seasons, RAPs, rainfall intensity, and geographical factors. The high spatial density of the database made it possible to identify spatial clusters with homogenous characteristics mainly influenced by geographical factors. With an increase in temperature, the wet season is characterized by a general increase in rainfall with a higher surge for intense and fast events. Instead, the dry season shows a general rainfall decrease for less intense and longer events, but an increase in rapid and more intensive rainfall events. This outcome has further implications involving a future decrease in water availability and an increase of the EPEs, causing an extremization of the climate during the dry season for northern and central Italy.

Tracking westerly wind directions over Europe since the middle Holocene.

The variability of the northern westerlies has been considered as one of the key elements for modern and past climate evolution. Their multiscale behavior and underlying control mechanisms, however, are incompletely understood, owing to the complex dynamics of Atlantic sea-level pressures. Here, we present a multi-annually resolved record of the westerly drift over the past 6,500 years from northern Italy. In combination with more than 20 other westerly-sensitive records, our results depict the non-stationary westerly-affected regions over mainland Europe on multi-decadal to multi-centennial time scales, showing that the direction of the westerlies has changed with respect to the migrations of the North Atlantic centers of action since the middle Holocene. Our findings suggest the crucial role of the migrations of the North Atlantic dipole in modulating the westerly-affected domain over Europe, possibly modulated by Atlantic Ocean variability.

Beyond one-way determinism: San Frediano's miracle and climate change in Central and Northern Italy in late antiquity.

Integrating palaeoclimatological proxies and historical records, which is necessary to achieve a more complete understanding of climate impacts on past societies, is a challenging task, often leading to unsatisfactory and even contradictory conclusions. This has until recently been the case for Italy, the heart of the Roman Empire, during the transition between Antiquity and the Middle Ages. In this paper, we present new high-resolution speleothem data from the Apuan Alps (Central Italy). The data document a period of very wet conditions in the sixth c. AD, probably related to synoptic atmospheric conditions similar to a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. For this century, there also exist a significant number of historical records of extreme hydroclimatic events, previously discarded as anecdotal. We show that this varied evidence reflects the increased frequency of floods and extreme rainfall events in Central and Northern Italy at the time. Moreover, we also show that these unusual hydroclimatic conditions overlapped with the increased presence of "water miracles" in Italian hagiographical accounts and social imagination. The miracles, performed by local Church leaders, strengthened the already growing authority of holy bishops and monks in Italian society during the crucial centuries that followed the "Fall of the Roman Empire". Thus, the combination of natural and historical data allows us to show the degree to which the impact of climate variability on historical societies is determined not by the nature of the climatic phenomena per se, but by the culture and the structure of the society that experienced it. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10584-021-03043-x.

Lake Ohrid's tephrochronological dataset reveals 1.36 Ma of Mediterranean explosive volcanic activity.

Tephrochronology relies on the availability of the stratigraphical, geochemical and geochronological datasets of volcanic deposits, three preconditions which are both often only fragmentary accessible. This study presents the tephrochronological dataset from the Lake Ohrid (Balkans) sediment succession continuously reaching back to 1.36 Ma. 57 tephra layers were investigated for their morphological appearance, geochemical fingerprint, and (chrono-)stratigraphic position. Glass fragments of tephra layers were analyzed for their major element composition using Energy-Dispersive-Spectroscopy and Wavelength-Dispersive Spectroscopy and for their trace element composition by Laser Ablation-Inductively Coupled Plasma-Mass Spectrometry. Radiometric dated equivalents of 16 tephra layers and orbital tuning of geochemical proxy data provided the basis for the age-depth model of the Lake Ohrid sediment succession. The age-depth model, in turn, provides ages for unknown or undated tephra layers. This dataset forms the basis for a regional stratigraphic framework and provides insights into the central Mediterranean explosive volcanic activity during the last 1.36 Ma.

Exploring mobility in Italian Neolithic and Copper Age communities.

As a means for investigating human mobility during late the Neolithic to the Copper Age in central and southern Italy, this study presents a novel dataset of enamel oxygen and carbon isotope values (δ18Oca and δ13Cca) from the carbonate fraction of biogenic apatite for one hundred and twenty-six individual teeth coming from two Neolithic and eight Copper Age communities. The measured δ18Oca values suggest a significant role of local sources in the water inputs to the body water, whereas δ13Cca values indicate food resources, principally based on C3 plants. Both δ13Cca and δ18Oca ranges vary substantially when samples are broken down into local populations. Statistically defined thresholds, accounting for intra-site variability, allow the identification of only a few outliers in the eight Copper Age communities, suggesting that sedentary lifestyle rather than extensive mobility characterized the investigated populations. This seems to be also typical of the two studied Neolithic communities. Overall, this research shows that the investigated periods in peninsular Italy differed in mobility pattern from the following Bronze Age communities from more northern areas.

Magnesium in subaqueous speleothems as a potential palaeotemperature proxy.

Few palaeoclimate archives beyond the polar regions preserve continuous and datable palaeotemperature proxy time series over multiple glacial-interglacial cycles. This hampers efforts to develop a more coherent picture of global patterns of past temperatures. Here we show that Mg concentrations in a subaqueous speleothem from an Italian cave track regional sea-surface temperatures over the last 350,000 years. The Mg shows higher values during warm climate intervals and converse patterns during cold climate stages. In contrast to previous studies, this implicates temperature, not rainfall, as the principal driver of Mg variability. The depositional setting of the speleothem gives rise to Mg partition coefficients that are more temperature dependent than other calcites, enabling the effect of temperature change on Mg partitioning to greatly exceed the effects of changes in source-water Mg/Ca. Subaqueous speleothems from similar deep-cave environments should be capable of providing palaeotemperature information over multiple glacial-interglacial cycles.

Deep drilling reveals massive shifts in evolutionary dynamics after formation of ancient ecosystem.

The scarcity of high-resolution empirical data directly tracking diversity over time limits our understanding of speciation and extinction dynamics and the drivers of rate changes. Here, we analyze a continuous species-level fossil record of endemic diatoms from ancient Lake Ohrid, along with environmental and climate indicator time series since lake formation 1.36 million years (Ma) ago. We show that speciation and extinction rates nearly simultaneously decreased in the environmentally dynamic phase after ecosystem formation and stabilized after deep-water conditions established in Lake Ohrid. As the lake deepens, we also see a switch in the macroevolutionary trade-off, resulting in a transition from a volatile assemblage of short-lived endemic species to a stable community of long-lived species. Our results emphasize the importance of the interplay between environmental/climate change, ecosystem stability, and environmental limits to diversity for diversification processes. The study also provides a new understanding of evolutionary dynamics in long-lived ecosystems.

Persistent influence of obliquity on ice age terminations since the Middle Pleistocene transition.

Radiometric dating of glacial terminations over the past 640,000 years suggests pacing by Earth's climatic precession, with each glacial-interglacial period spanning four or five cycles of ~20,000 years. However, the lack of firm age estimates for older Pleistocene terminations confounds attempts to test the persistence of precession forcing. We combine an Italian speleothem record anchored by a uranium-lead chronology with North Atlantic ocean data to show that the first two deglaciations of the so-called 100,000-year world are separated by two obliquity cycles, with each termination starting at the same high phase of obliquity, but at opposing phases of precession. An assessment of 11 radiometrically dated terminations spanning the past million years suggests that obliquity exerted a persistent influence on not only their initiation but also their duration.

Effects of organic removal techniques prior to carbonate stable isotope analysis of lacustrine marls: A case study from palaeo-lake Fucino (central Italy).

RATIONALE: The suitability of organic matter (OM) removal pre-treatments in isotopic studies of lacustrine carbonates is currently under debate. Naturally occurring OM seems to have a negligible effect on the bulk isotopic composition of carbonates compared with changes induced by pre-treatments. This study provides further insights into the possible effects induced by commonly used pre-treatments on natural lacustrine carbonates. METHODS: Sixteen samples from the Fucino F1-F3 lacustrine succession (Abruzzo, central Italy) were characterised for their mineralogical and geochemical composition and each was split into three identical aliquots. One aliquot was left untreated while the remaining two were treated with NaOCl and H2 O2 dilutions. The same treatment was applied to an internal standard consisting of pure Carrara marble. The treated and untreated samples were analysed for their carbon (δ13 C values) and oxygen (δ18 O values) isotope compositions using an Analytical Precision AP2003 isotope ratio mass spectrometer. RESULTS: The samples had variable proportions of endogenic and detrital components, the detrital portion being more (less) abundant during colder (warmer) climate phases. We observed that neither the NaOCl nor the H2 O2 treatment was able to completely remove OM and therefore there was selective removal of compounds within the OM pool. A possible effect of pre-treatment is the loss of carbonates intimately interspersed within the OM, as suggested by the evolution of isotopic ratios towards the local detrital array. CONCLUSIONS: Our study highlights sample-specific changes in geochemistry associated with sample pre-treatments; however, such changes do not seem to lead to either systematic and/or predictable isotopic shifts. We suggest that the suitability of NaOCl or H2 O2 pre-treatments for OM removal should be evaluated on a case-by-case basis. In the specific case of lacustrine marls from palaeo-lake Fucino containing relatively low amounts of OM and in which both detrital and endogenic carbonates occur, both pre-treatments should be avoided.

Holocene Critical Zone dynamics in an Alpine catchment inferred from a speleothem multiproxy record: disentangling climate and human influences.

Disentangling the effects of climate and human impact on the long-term evolution of the Earth Critical Zone is crucial to understand the array of its potential responses to the ongoing Global Change. This task requires natural archives from which local information about soil and vegetation can be linked directly to climate parameters. Here we present a high-resolution, well-dated, speleothem multiproxy record from the SW Italian Alps, spanning the last ~10,000 years of the present interglacial (Holocene). We correlate magnetic properties and the carbon stable isotope ratio to soil stability and pedogenesis, whereas the oxygen isotope composition is interpreted as primarily related to precipitation amount, modulated at different timescales by changes in precipitation source and seasonality. During the 9.7-2.8 ka period, when anthropic pressure over the catchment was scarce, intervals of enhanced soil erosion are related to climate-driven vegetation contractions and occurred during drier periods. Immediately following the onset of the Iron Age (ca. 2.8 ka), by contrast, periods of enhanced soil erosion coincided with a wetter climate. We propose that the observed changes in the soil response to climate forcing were related to early anthropogenic manipulations of Earth's surface, which made the ECZ more sensitive to climate oscillations.

Mediterranean winter rainfall in phase with African monsoons during the past 1.36 million years.

Mediterranean climates are characterized by strong seasonal contrasts between dry summers and wet winters. Changes in winter rainfall are critical for regional socioeconomic development, but are difficult to simulate accurately1 and reconstruct on Quaternary timescales. This is partly because regional hydroclimate records that cover multiple glacial-interglacial cycles2,3 with different orbital geometries, global ice volume and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are scarce. Moreover, the underlying mechanisms of change and their persistence remain unexplored. Here we show that, over the past 1.36 million years, wet winters in the northcentral Mediterranean tend to occur with high contrasts in local, seasonal insolation and a vigorous African summer monsoon. Our proxy time series from Lake Ohrid on the Balkan Peninsula, together with a 784,000-year transient climate model hindcast, suggest that increased sea surface temperatures amplify local cyclone development and refuel North Atlantic low-pressure systems that enter the Mediterranean during phases of low continental ice volume and high concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases. A comparison with modern reanalysis data shows that current drivers of the amount of rainfall in the Mediterranean share some similarities to those that drive the reconstructed increases in precipitation. Our data cover multiple insolation maxima and are therefore an important benchmark for testing climate model performance.

From Neandertals to modern humans: New data on the Uluzzian.

Having thrived in Eurasia for 350,000 years Neandertals disappeared from the record around 40,000-37,000 years ago, after modern humans entered Europe. It was a complex process of population interactions that included cultural exchanges and admixture between Neandertals and dispersing groups of modern humans. In Europe Neandertals are always associated with the Mousterian while the Aurignacian is associated with modern humans only. The onset of the Aurignacian is preceded by "transitional" industries which show some similarities with the Mousterian but also contain modern tool forms. Information on these industries is often incomplete or disputed and this is true of the Uluzzian. We present the results of taphonomic, typological and technological analyses of two Uluzzian sites, Grotta La Fabbrica (Tuscany) and the newly discovered site of Colle Rotondo (Latium). Comparisons with Castelcivita and Grotta del Cavallo show that the Uluzzian is a coherent cultural unit lasting about five millennia, replaced by the Protoaurignacian before the eruption of the Campanian Ignimbrite. The lack of skeletal remains at our two sites and the controversy surrounding the stratigraphic position of modern human teeth at Cavallo makes it difficult to reach agreement about authorship of the Uluzzian, for which alternative hypotheses have been proposed. Pending the discovery of DNA or further human remains, these hypotheses can only be evaluated by archaeological arguments, i.e. evidence of continuities and discontinuities between the Uluzzian and the preceding and succeeding culture units in Italy. However, in the context of "transitional" industries with disputed dates for the arrival of modern humans in Europe, and considering the case of the Châtelperronian, an Upper Paleolithic industry made by Neandertals, typo-technology used as an indicator of hominin authorship has limited predictive value. We corroborate previous suggestions that the Middle-to-Upper Paleolithic transition occurred as steps of rapid changes and geographically uneven rates of spread.

Stable isotopes reveal Holocene changes in the diet of Adélie penguins in Northern Victoria Land (Ross Sea, Antarctica).

Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) modern and fossil eggshells and guano samples collected from ornithogenic soils in Terra Nova Bay (Victoria Land, Ross Sea) were processed for carbon and nitrogen isotopic ratios with the aim of detecting past penguin dietary changes. A detailed and greatly expanded Adélie penguin dietary record dated back to 7,200 years BP has been reconstructed for the investigated area. Our data indicate a significant dietary shift between fish and krill, with a gradual decrease from past to present time in the proportion of fish compared to krill in Adélie penguin diet. From 7,200 to 2,000 years BP, δ(13)C and δ(15)N values indicate fish as the most eaten prey. The dietary contribution of lower-trophic prey in penguin diet started becoming evident not earlier than 2,000 years BP, when the δ(13)C values reveal a change in the penguin feeding behavior. Modern eggshell and guano samples reveal a major dietary contribution of krill but not a krill-dominated diet, since δ(13)C values remain much too high if krill prevail in the diet. According to the Holocene environmental background attested for Victoria Land, Adélie penguin dietary shifts between fish and krill seem to reflect penguin paleoecological responses to different paleoenvironmental settings with different conditions of sea-ice extension and persistence. Furthermore, Adélie penguin diet appears to be particularly affected by environmental changes in a very specific period within the breeding season, namely the egg-laying period when penguin dietary and feeding habit shifts are clearly documented by the δ(13)C of eggshell carbonate.